Why commodities could be nearing a major buying opportunity

When prices are rising, it’s easy to believe they’ll keep rising forever. When markets correct, it’s just as easy to believe the entire trend is over.

In reality, neither is usually true.

Those who have been reading my News Corp articles or following my market updates over the past couple of years will know that I became increasingly bullish on commodities early last year.

At the time, that wasn’t a particularly popular view.

Silver was still trading in the high US$20s. Platinum was below US$1,000 an ounce. Copper wasn’t attracting much attention, despite what I believed were improving long term fundamentals. Many mining companies were still well below their previous highs.

My view wasn’t based on one chart or one prediction. It came from looking at many different pieces of evidence together. Technical analysis, market cycles, intermarket relationships and investor sentiment were all pointing in a similar direction.

Over the following year, many of those markets performed very well.

Silver rallied strongly. Platinum finally began to move higher. Copper strengthened, and many resource companies significantly outperformed the broader share market.

As those gains continued, my outlook became a little more cautious.

Not because I believed the long term bull market had finished, but because history shows that strong trends rarely move in a straight line. Markets need time to pause. They need time to reset. Healthy corrections are a normal part of almost every long term bull market.

After publishing several bullish News Corp articles on commodities throughout early last year, my focus naturally shifted towards risk management. Towards the end of the year, I wrote that I believed gold was entering what I referred to as the excess phase of its current move, the final stage before a much deeper correction. The end of a wave but the beginning of a long-term bullish cycle.

This is often the point in a market cycle where optimism becomes widespread, confidence is at its highest and more everyday investors begin entering the market. While prices can continue rising for a period, history suggests this is also when the risk of a larger pullback begins to increase.

Around the same time, I also discussed this view on YouTube videos, explaining why I believed precious metals were likely to experience a healthy large correction sometime between February and April in 2026. My goal wasn’t to predict the exact day the market would top. It was simply to prepare investors for the possibility that the next phase of the cycle could look very different from the one we’d just experienced.

For those who follow my social media, you may also remember a post I shared roughly a week before silver reached its high. Using Fibonacci Extension analysis, I identified the $110 to $130 USD region as an area where I believed silver could begin finding significant resistance. A week later, silver reached that zone and then topped out at $122.

I don’t mention this to suggest anyone can predict markets with certainty. Nobody can. Markets have a way of keeping all of us humble.

I simply believe it’s important to publish analysis before events unfold rather than explaining them afterwards. That allows readers to judge the process and reasoning for themselves.

Which brings us to today.

The question isn’t whether precious metals have corrected.

They clearly have. But it was also very expected. The market is doing anything it shouldn’t be doing.

The more interesting question is whether that correction could now be approaching an important turning point.

The honest answer is that we don’t know yet.

Markets only confirm major bottoms after they’ve happened.

What I can say is that several technical signals are beginning to appear that I believe are worth paying close attention to.

One of those is the Gold to Dow Ratio.

This ratio originally broke higher back in 2024, around the same time I began writing that I believed commodities were entering a much larger bull market.

Today, that entire excess move has been retraced. The ratio has returned to a key retracement zone while also testing a major support area that has influenced price since 2014.

On its own, that doesn’t prove anything.

But it does tell me we’re back at an area where buyers have historically shown interest.

I’m also paying close attention to the Australian dollar.

Many investors don’t immediately connect currencies with commodities, but Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of natural resources. Because of that, our currency has historically moved closely with commodity markets over the longer term.

After correcting over recent months, the Australian dollar is beginning to show hidden bullish divergence while holding an important support level.

We’ve also seen a healthy reset in momentum and a retracement back towards the key retracement zone, where buyers are beginning to respond.

As long as the Australian dollar continues holding above approximately US$0.67, I continue leaning towards higher prices over the longer term.

That matters because a stronger Australian dollar has often gone hand-in-hand with stronger commodity markets, while a weaker US dollar has generally provided an additional tailwind for precious metals and resource companies.

Of course, none of these charts prove my view.

Markets don’t work that way.

One chart doesn’t prove a thesis.

One indicator doesn’t confirm a major bottom.

But when a few independent markets begin telling the same story, I believe it’s worth paying attention.

Across gold, silver, the Gold to Dow Ratio, the Gold to Silver Ratio, the Australian dollar and several commodity markets, I’m beginning to see improving momentum, important technical support levels being tested and investor sentiment becoming increasingly negative.

Ironically, that’s often when some of the best long term opportunities begin to emerge.

I want to be very clear though.

I’m not saying the bottom is definitely in.

At this stage, I’m simply seeing several technical signals that suggest we’re approaching an important area.

Those signals still need confirmation.

Markets have a habit of keeping all of us patient.

If price confirms what these indicators are suggesting, this could prove to be a very important turning point.

If it doesn’t, then the market will provide new information and I’ll reassess the evidence, just as I always do.

One of the biggest advantages education gives investors is perspective.

When you understand how market cycles work, corrections become much easier to manage emotionally.

Instead of assuming every pullback means the bull market is over, you begin asking whether the correction is behaving normally within the context of a much bigger trend.

At the moment, I believe that’s the more important question.

Time will tell whether these technical signals develop into something bigger.

For now, I believe this is simply a reminder that some of the best opportunities often appear when confidence is at its lowest, not when excitement is at its highest. In my view, the January high was likely the top of a wave, and what we’ve seen since is a healthy correction within a much bigger trend.

Seasonally, commodities don’t typically become bullish again until later in the year, often around October. That said, many markets are now testing key long term support levels, so this is an area I’ll be watching very closely for signs that buyers are starting to return.

Nothing is guaranteed, and I still need to see confirmation from the charts. But if that confirmation comes, I believe the long-term secular bull market still has a long way to run.